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US Presidential elections and the Indian economy

16 Sep 2016 |By: Team Finalaya

US Presidential Election and Indian Economy

As we move into the middle of September 2016, economic pundits as well as the man on the street not just in America, but across the world, are watching with keen interest the unfolding developments in the US Presidential Elections. For now, the fight appears to have narrowed down to two Candidates, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. When we weigh in the basic attributes of the two Hillary Clinton appears to have the edge for more reasons than one. Pitted against Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton is a seasoned politician, an earlier First Lady and above all an erstwhile Republican. So those attributes give her the edge. On the other side Donald Trump is a businessman with a well defined business empire. However, when it comes to political sagacity, he is apparently miles behind Hillary Clinton.

US election results could be photo finish

Going by what we see and hear so far, it looks like that the final results scheduled for the second week of November 2016 could well turn out to be a photo finish. At the end of the day, however, we are talking about the head of state for the largest economy in the world, and the balance could tilt either way till the very end. Yet, most people would want to believe that the political experience and the Republican background will swing in favour of Hillary Clinton.

President Trump – a different ball game altogether

Talking too many things as part of his presidential campaign and delivering on those promises as President of America are two different things entirely. The job of the American President is not exactly enviable since he/she will have to perform fine balancing acts on multiple fronts and nearly simultaneously. Hoping or promising to change too many things overnight can only be convenient when one is in the passenger’s seat. In the driver’s seat, the game changed rapidly and calls for great political sagacity, and more so, when one is heading the world’s No.1 economy.

The Indian IT sector is somewhat concerned about a series of rhetoric from Donald Trump. But he has also made contradicting statements at varying points of time. But, it is noteworthy that Trump is a business tycoon with his business interests spanning the globe. Therefore, Trump as American President will need to think twice before initiating any action that could potentially inflict injuries to his own business interests. On the Indian political front too, Trump is well connected to the Congress party while his equations with the BJP are at best subdued.

Indian economy is resilient

The timing of the US Presidential elections 2016 augurs well for the Indian economy that is growing at a steady pace of 7% and a near bountiful monsoon having just added to the positively charged economic climate. Political stability which is another major driver for any national economy is also more than strong.  While some knee jerk reactions should be expected as a consequence of the US Presidential elections, the event is likely to pass without any tremors, and much less a Tsunami.  The fact that India today enjoys close bilateral relations with the USA and both nations stand to gain from this relationship will also help a smooth transition of power from Mr. Obama.

Need to keep an eye out for ripple effect

Although the Indian economy may not significantly suffer any negative impact from the upcoming US Presidential elections, how the same impacts other nations, particularly China and any potential changes to the Shale policy by the US are factors everyone should watch out for

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